Approaching The ‘Peak’: Where We Stand as We Continue to ‘Flatten the Curve’ Together
As New Yorkmoves throughthe COVID-19 pandemic, public health officials are starting to refer to this time period as “peak week”—when the region will see its greatest number of patients, hospitalizations andcritical casesfromthe virus.
Also called the apex, thisis when our healthcare systemanticipates not onlythe greatest demand, but acontinuedstrainon resources andour front-line healthcareworkerswho are working overtime to provide care to our most critically ill.
According to the, “the peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses.”New Yorkers are expected to be near the apex of their local curve this week.
Different countries, the CDC notes, can be in different phases of the pandemic at any time, as can different parts of the same country.Diagnosed cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates from COVID-19by state and citydue to factors such as population density and the timing of when the infection arrived in the area.
Here in New York, where population density is high,soisthe risk of infection. There is wide agreement thatslowing the spreadguidelines areour best betfor protectingNew York’shigh-risk populationsfrom exposure to this potentially deadly virus.To get pastthepeak—and not experience another—New Yorkmustcontinuesocial distancing,as this isconsidered one of the most effective measures against the virus.
The seasonal change to Spring has the potential to cause aninfluxofadditional patients if New Yorkers neglect to takeproper precautions(social distancing, masks, hand sanitizer, and proper handwashing) when they’re outside andparticularly uponre-enteringtheir homesto keep form bringing the virus in with them.
The community already has begun to see some progress in “flattening the curve.”But the full picture isas our community is seeing a spike in COVID-19 related deaths, we are also seeing some promising signs that our hospitalization rates are decreasing according to reports from the New York State Department of health and announced by governor Cuomo.Here we have summarized some of those projections to provide some visual context. As you can see, the slope of the curve remains steep even with the reduction of hospitalization rates. While it is certainly promising to see the impact of our social distancing efforts here in New York, adherence to these guidelines is crucial if we wish to reduce the overall strain on our health system.
Sowhat is the bottom line? Vigilance. We must remain conscious of how quickly trends change--and how quickly the virus spreads.
“If we let our foot off the gas and start doing things that are ill-advised,we could have another peak in a few weeks. So we have to completely keep our efforts going,”,assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services,saidthisweek. “Another‘peak’could be coming down the road if people don’t continue to adhere to social distancing guidelines.”
Theidea of another“peak”may befrightening,butNew Yorkcan continue moving in the right directionifresidentscontinuetofollow the recommendedhealth tipsandadhere tosocial distancing.
“I think we all would like tohavea failsafe mechanismto be sure we would never get infected,” says Michael Niederman,MD,associate chief and clinical director of pulmonary and critical care medicine at Weill Cornell M徱Ա.“Social distancing is absolutely key….”
While we all may be isolated, we can all win this fight together by holding ourselves accountable and protecting our higher risk neighbors from unnecessary exposure, especially as we approach the peak.
Additional Resources
To learn about symptoms and prevention, and/or connect to a provider, please see the Ƶ COVID-19patient guide.
We’ve also created a 24/7 hotline dedicated to COVID-19. Please call (646) 697-4000.
Theand theare additional reliable sources for the latest guidelines and recommendations.